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Second Stimulus Check Update 6/27 CONFIRMED!

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One economist said, “While state and local governments can use some stimulus from the federal government, an infrastructure plan may be easiest to pass because Democrats and Republicans support it." Scott Colbert, executive vice president and chief economist at Commerce Trust Co. said, “This would be an ideal time to put money back into the infrastructure, which becomes very productive for the country in the longest of runs." He says, “I’m actually optimistic and hopeful that because both Democrats and Republicans like the idea of infrastructure in some way or another, something is likely to happen." With interest rates low, borrowing is not an issue and “I do think that there will be a second round of stimulus" providing money to state and local governments and for infrastructure.

He said inflation isn’t the main issue now and “We’re not likely to confront [inflation] anytime soon," Colbert said, "despite the fact that they [the government] have ginned up a lot of stimulus and borrowed our way forward.” Consumers have cut back on spending because "people are a little worried that they're not going to have much money in the future, especially if they lost their job," he said. And the aging of society also suggests less spending going forward, which could make it difficult for the Fed to create inflation. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index was in the final June reading, down from earlier in June, but up from in May. The survey’s current economic conditions index was in the final June read, after earlier in the month and in May. Personal income fell in May, after it rose the previous month, according to the Commerce Department. Chief economist at Bank of the West said, “The details of the report clearly show government transfer payments are almost the only driver of personal income gains today,”

The first big test will be the June jobs report, out on Thursday instead of its usual Friday release due to the July 4 holiday. According to Refinitiv, economists expect 3 million jobs were created, after May’s surprise gain of million payrolls beat forecasts by a whopping 10 million jobs. “If it’s stronger, it will suggest that the improvement is quicker, and that’s kind of what we saw in May with better retail sales, confidence was coming back a little and auto sales were better,” said Kevin Cummins, chief economist at NatWest Markets. The Trump administration has indicated the jobs report Thursday could help shape the fiscal package, depending on what it shows. The federal supplement to state unemployment benefits has been $600 a week, but there is opposition to extending that, and strategists expect it to be at least cut in half.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin both testify before the House Financial Services Committee Tuesday on the response to the virus. That will be important as markets look ahead to another fiscal package from Congress this summer, which is expected to provide aid to states and local governments; extend some enhanced benefits for unemployment, and provide more support for businesses.

#StimulusUpdate #StimulusChecks #StimulusPackage
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