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Update, UK

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Prepare now for a winter COVID-19 peak, Academy of Medical Sciences, 14th July

37 excerpts

Preparations to avoid second wave worst-case scenario in NHS hospitals must start now

COVID-19 is more likely to spread in winter

More time indoors

Virus able to survive longer in colder, darker winter conditions.


Disruption already created

Backlog of patients

Possibility of a flu epidemic

Other infectious diseases

Asthma, heart attack, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and stroke

Overlapping symptoms of COVID-19, flu and other winter infections

Internal redeployments

Slower with reduced throughput capacity

Risk of the health service being overwhelmed


Minimising transmission in the community

Public information campaign for all

Tailored to individuals and communities at high risk

Comprehensive, near real-time, population-wide surveillance system

Flu vaccination, concerted effort

Minimise coronavirus and flu transmission everywhere

Track, trace and isolate programme ready for winter


Hospitals and care homes

COVID-19 and COVID-19-free zones

Ensure there is adequate PPE

System-wide infection control, minimise transmission in hospital and other residential care settings


High degree of uncertainty about how epidemic will evolve

Rt from September 2020 onwards

Peak in hospital admissions and deaths in January and February 2021

September 2020 to June 2021, 119,900 hospital-based deaths (excluding care homes)

Government would act to reduce the transmission rate

Dexamethasone (and heparin)

Need for immediate action

It must be done now

Masks mandated in shops in England from 24th July. Already mandatory in shops in Scotland.

Germany, Spain, Italy and Greece, have already made it compulsory

YouGov poll

UK , 36%
Spain, 86%
Italy, 83%
France, 78%
Germany, 65%
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